The electric motorcycle industry is picking up across the board, can the next

After decades of suffering, motorcycles are finally "coming out"?

Does the market need motorcycles? The answer is yes.

According to data released by the China Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce, China's motorcycle production and sales will return to 20 million units again in 2021, the best level since 2014.

To a certain extent, the growth path of electric motorcycles may be able to replicate that of electric cars.

In recent years, electric vehicles are gradually eating into the fuel car market share. According to automotive industry data firm LMC Automotive, electric vehicles are expected to account for half of global vehicle sales in 2030. It is no coincidence that electric motorcycles also have some growth potential from replacing fuel motorcycles, which are bound to face transformation when environmental targets are used as the barrier to entry everywhere.

In contrast, two-wheeled electric vehicles are not having a good time: at present, light two-wheeled electric vehicle manufacturers rely on subsidies to feed under the unfavorable conditions of the "motorcycle ban", and can only rely on technology "pie", and it is difficult to break through the core capabilities for a long time. In order to achieve leapfrog development, light two-wheeled electric vehicle manufacturers undoubtedly need to open up new development routes.

According to a report by the China Research Institute of Industrial Research, the global market for motorcycles will show strong growth of 6.87% in 2021 due to the impact of the 2020 epidemic, and the market size is expected to grow from $298.58 billion in 2021 to $485.67 billion in 2028. According to the "2021-2027 Global and China Electric Motorcycle Market Status and Future Development Trends" report, the global electric motorcycle market is expected to reach $69.3 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5 percent.

The electric motorcycle industry is back in full swing, is it a flash in the pan or another blue ocean? With the motorcycle ban policy still unfriendly, where should electric motorcycles go?

The industry revolution is happening

The voice of the "return" of motorcycles has never stopped.

What do motorcycles mean to consumers? With the development of social and economic development, people's perception of motorcycles has long been more than "commuting" and "cheap and useful". Today, as the "Generation Z" consumer power rises, motorcycles have become a new way of life. This change in lifestyle can often lead to a restructuring of the industry.

However, despite the call for the return of motorcycles, the domestic market for large-displacement motorcycles is still not that optimistic, and consumer demand is still mainly focused on low-end products.

Chen Can, head of the marketing department of Speedco, said that as far as the global motorcycle industry is concerned, the consumer market situation at home and abroad shows different development patterns.

At present, it seems that more than 70% of the global two-wheeled vehicle market is concentrated in Southeast Asia and China, where the market demand for two-wheeled vehicles is large and small and medium-displacement models, mainly used as commuting tools, are favored by the public. Motorcycles are seen as "big toys" with strong recreational attributes.

In 2021, China's motorcycle export sales reached 8.974.6 million units, up 26.57% year-on-year, and the export value was US$5.77 billion, up 41.62% year-on-year.

Although the domestic and international motorcycle markets present two very different scenes, the desire of domestic consumers for heavy-duty motorcycle "big toys" is evident.

This can be seen in the bright report card of electric motorcycle sales.

According to data released by the China Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce, from January to December 2021, the industry completed motorcycle production and sales of 20.19.52 million units and 20.19.48 million units, an increase of 12.98 percent and 12.7 percent, respectively. Among them, the production and sales of electric motorcycles 395.89 million units and 394.28 million units, an increase of 3.65% and 3.43%.

During the same period, the crossover production and sales of 9.09 million and 9.0974 million units, an increase of 18.76% and 18.68%; scooter production and sales of 6.471 million units and 6.4784 million units, an increase of 9.58% and 9.25%; bicycle production and sales of 2.2785 million units and 22.277 million units, an increase of 9% and 8.42%.

From the proportion of sales of the three models, crossover bikes to 50.95 percent of the proportion in first place.

Domestic electric motorcycle sales are encouraging, but also to a large extent by the impact of carbon neutral policy.

In February 2021, the "Guidance of the State Council on Accelerating the Establishment of a Sound Economic System of Green, Low-Carbon and Circular Development" pointed out that a sound economic system of green, low-carbon and circular development should be established to ensure the achievement of the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.

In this way, under the background of carbon neutrality, the motorcycle industry is undergoing a silent change, and heavy-duty electric motorcycles have become the new development trend.

Under this trend, car companies that have already enjoyed the dividends of new energy electric vehicles have become more sensitive to smell. Today, the electric motorcycle track has also been flooded with seeds, and traditional car companies are one of the most active and enthusiastic candidates.

The automotive industry has been the first to bear the brunt of the carbon neutrality target. Since then, new energy vehicles have become a must-have direction for auto manufacturing.

However, industry transformation is not as simple as it seems when traditional car companies have to get rid of path dependence. New energy vehicle power battery and its components technology research and development is a "roadblock".

Relevant industry sources said that for automotive companies, research and development required human and material resources and financial resources are a huge expenditure, but also need to seek new development to supplement the funding gap. And hundreds of billions of motorcycle racing track profits can be considerable, is not lost as a good breakthrough direction. In terms of cost, compared with motorcycles, cars need to purchase a large number of parts, airbags, glass, car systems, seats, etc., from the production costs alone, it is already far higher than motorcycles.

Motorcycle field of spring power, motorcycle, car business as one Lifan technology, the two profit performance, is the best verification of the above point.

The data of Huajing Industry Research Institute shows that the revenue of Chunfeng Power in 2020 is 4.5 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 29.3%. During the same period, Lifan Technology's financial report shows that the company's motorcycle and accessories business revenue of 2.56 billion yuan, revenue accounted for 71.3%, gross profit margin of 8.6%, is also a considerable profit, which is perhaps the most direct reason why car companies will enter the game.

In fact, the layout of the electric car track is not a few car companies.

Since 2021, Honda, Kawasaki, BMW and Ducati are gradually involved in electric motorcycles. Currently, domestic car companies such as Geely, Wuling and Link have all announced their entry into the motorcycle industry. Although the above-mentioned domestic car companies have not yet announced the production models, but the domestic environment and situation, perhaps the best choice for them is electric motorcycles.
*** Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) ***
The "savior" of electric two-wheelers

In fact, compared to domestic car companies, electric motorcycles are of greater significance to two-wheeled electric vehicle manufacturers.

Industry data shows that China is the world's largest producer and consumer of electric two-wheeled vehicles, the national electric vehicle fleet has exceeded 350 million units, and the sales of electric vehicles will reach 47.6 million units in 2020, up 23% year-on-year, and the average sales of two-wheeled electric vehicles will reach 57 million units in the next three years.

In recent years, the wild growth of electric two-wheeled vehicles has ended and clear macro and micro drivers have emerged.

On the one hand, our government has set the target of "achieving carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060" to actively respond to climate change, and carbon neutrality and new national standards have become the key macro factors driving the development of the electric two-wheeled vehicle industry.

On the other hand, changes in the age level, geography and personalization of electric consumers are increasingly affecting the design and positioning of electric vehicles by brand manufacturers, especially the intelligent features and the design of the driving experience.

In addition, in order to reduce road traffic accidents, air pollution and noise pollution, China started to implement the "motorcycle ban" since 1985, which also provides a natural barrier for the development of electric two-wheelers.

In essence, the road for the development of electric two-wheeled vehicle manufacturers has been paved. But at present, it seems that the electric two-wheeled vehicle manufacturers are so well protected that they have been pampered for many years, resulting in their failure to make breakthroughs in key technologies so far.

The company's main business is to promote the development of electric vehicles. Users activate the owner's app based on these two features, but because the content of the owner's app is lackluster and the interaction is complex, the learning cost for users increases. This leads to low usage rate for many users after activating the APP.

In addition, some electric two-wheelers are now commercially available with digital car keys, so that owners can unlock the two-wheelers through smartphones or wearable devices and perform related operations on the vehicles, which greatly enhances the convenience of using the vehicles. However, there are security risks such as "deep entrance", "inconvenient operation" and "easy to be cracked and copied", so the car key function has not attracted more users. There is a big problem of popularization.

In the long run, electric two-wheeled vehicles can not long-term development, the transformation is imperative, electric motorcycle is undoubtedly a new breakthrough.

Still need to break the situation

Throughout the whole situation, the motorcycle industry is replicating the wave of electrification in the automotive industry.

At this stage, the electric motorcycle industry is still in its infancy, and the industry is looking forward to the existing electric motorcycle brands to run out of head enterprises like Tesla, and through the "catfish effect" to drive the transformation and upgrading of the industry.

Electrification has eliminated the technological generation gap between Chinese and foreign motorcycle companies. In recent years, China has accumulated a great deal of intelligent network technology, which is undoubtedly a very important advantage for Chinese motorcycle companies in a market where technology is used as a discourse.

The former giants, including Loncin and Lifan, who were dying or even strategically abandoned their motorcycle business long ago, are returning to motorcycles in the new wave of electrification, transforming and upgrading themselves from "traditional motorcycle manufacturers" to "electric motorcycle manufacturers".

At the 2021 China Motorcycle Expo, Lifan launched four electric motorcycles and unveiled its new strategy of intelligent electrification of the motorcycle industry. Chongqing Zongshen, a relatively robust company, has already advanced its layout to achieve balanced development between electric motorcycles and traditional motorcycles.

However, to become an electric motorcycle head manufacturer is not a quick fix, in fact, it will be a relatively long process.

In Can Chen's view, breakthrough triboelectric technology and intelligence will be the starting point for electric motorcycle manufacturers in the competition. However, it seems that among the technical difficulties that electric motorcycle manufacturers need to break through, the core key is the battery system technology that can overcome specific scenarios, temperature and other application restrictions and high range.

Can Chen said that fuel motorcycle consumers are obsessed with speed performance, and an advanced electric system is the key that will enable them to choose electric motorcycles.

Car companies have long been plagued by the problem of higher battery costs, and the electric motorcycle industry is no exception.

At present, China's two-wheeled electric vehicles are mainly divided into two kinds of lead-acid battery two-wheeled electric vehicles and lithium battery two-wheeled electric vehicles, the cost of the battery accounted for 30%-50% ranging. Due to the cheap price and high stability of lead-acid battery, it has been the main type of battery used in China's two-wheeled electric vehicles, but it is easy to cause pollution to the environment in the manufacturing process.

In addition to the disadvantages of more expensive and less stable, lithium batteries have the advantages of low pollution, high energy density, long life and support for fast charging, prompting the government to actively promote the use of lithium batteries in the two-wheeled electric vehicle industry as an alternative to lead-acid batteries.

For the current widespread problem of expensive electric vehicle battery cost, Can Chen said that in addition to the technological breakthroughs at the end of the supply chain to reduce the impact of international raw materials on the cost of battery cells, downstream host manufacturers must also jointly participate in the development of battery system technology to change the effective control rate and service life of the battery from the application side.

It is understood that many electric motorcycle companies have already launched a wide range of cooperation with power battery manufacturers. Among them, Socor has already cooperated with Ningde Times to develop battery technology and more advanced battery control systems in order to reduce battery costs.

In addition, the digital transformation of electric motorcycles is also the key to the urgent innovation of electric motorcycle manufacturers.

As 4G/5G, IoT, distributed operating system, artificial intelligence, big data, cloud technology and other basic technologies mature, the car intelligence of electric two-wheelers also has more selective, and the industry has made many attempts to see many products equipped with, for example, Internet access capability, with basic voice interaction capabilities are brought to the market.

At present, the domestic electric motorcycle intelligent technology is mainly applied in two aspects: safety and experience.

From the experience point of view, the current main application of technology for self-balancing assisted driving, but due to the special attributes of motorcycle heavy experience, can be applied to the car's assisted driving function does not seem to be ideal in the two-wheeled electric motorcycle, the technology is currently in a conservative stage of promotion.

Epilogue

"The market needs stories, ups and downs to have highs and lows."

When motorcycles encounter the electrification wave after their ups and downs, will they be as good as gold? The answer is still to be answered by the "newcomers" on the track.

But for now, we have reason to believe that electric motorcycles will bring new growth to the motorcycle industry. We can expect that Chinese motorcycles will stand on the world stage with a new look and tell a new story.